Anticipating the Climate Change Impacts on Madeira’s Agriculture: The Characterization and Monitoring of a Vine Agrosystem

Climate—Madeira Strategy (CMS) foresees two models to describe the climate scenarios for Madeira region in 2050 and 2070. These anticipate an average temperature rise of 1.4 3.7 °C a decrease precipitation by 30 40%. Consequently, Madeira’s agriculture will suffer impacts change. To understand these impacts, baseline major agrosystem components needs be established, with ultimate goal monitor its consequences functioning. CASBio project used 1961–1991 2010–2020 meteorological data series modulate conditions characterize six agrosystems 2 years. One them was vineyard, Quinta das Vinhas, representing typical Mediterranean climate. The annual seasonal variation climatic parameters, soil conditions, microbiological communities, floristic insect diversity, crop production assessed, using total 50 parameters. results were establish their variation. findings are: (i) winter summer extreme events show trend supporting fast change climate; (ii) critical imbalance between nitrogen-fixing denitrifying bacteria identified, especially summer, that could determined drought; (iii) among therophytes geophytes confirm most suitable indicators reduction agrosystems; (iv) favor C. capitata plague observed, associated precipitation; (v) despite increase grape varieties production, Madeiran wine local shown less stable productivity under observed conditions. is starting point long-term monitoring allows further quantifying influence on productivity, resilience, sustainability.